Canada’s real estate and mortgage markets are showing strong signs of a turnaround, driven by improving economic conditions and mortgage policy changes.
The Bank of Canada’s rate cuts have begun to boost buyer confidence, first evident in October with a 7.7% surge in national home sales —the highest level since April 2022. Meanwhile, new federal mortgage rules, including raising the insured mortgage cap to $1.5 million and extending amortization periods to 30 years for first-time buyers, aim to make homeownership more accessible in high-cost markets and draw prospective buyers off the sidelines. Additionally, relaxed stress test rules at renewal are expected to further increase market activity, benefiting both borrowers and brokers.
While analysts are optimistic about market performance in 2025, affordability challenges persist. Tight inventory and sustained demand, especially in high-demand areas like Toronto and Vancouver, could keep upward pressure on prices. TD Economics projects that recent policy changes may lead to a 2-4% increase in home prices and sales by year-end.
Market momentum is expected to accelerate early in the year, fueled by further rate cuts and a stabilizing economic environment, with mortgage rates project to reach their expected lows by the spring. The Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) forecasts a 6.6% increase in national home sales for the year, with the average home price expected to rise by 4.4%. Though risks remain, 2025 holds promise for the mortgage market. As activity picks up and policy changes take effect, opportunities abound for brokers to help borrowers navigate the evolving landscape.
Private lending in 2025: A promising year for partnerships
The private mortgage lending market is poised for a strong 2025, driven by growing demand for flexible and accessible financing solutions. With housing affordability challenges persisting and traditional lending qualifications remaining stringent, private lenders are an increasingly vital alternative. A growing cohort of borrowers with unique financial profiles—especially self-employed individuals and those with unconventional income sources—face shrinking access to traditional mortgage financing and rely on private lenders for essential, flexible solutions.
The evolution of the private lending sector will also be shaped by continued regulatory adjustments focused on borrower education and mortgage suitability. These changes aim to enhance transparency, ensuring that private lending solutions align with borrowers’ goals and that borrowers fully understand their options and the solutions they are offered.
Navigating Canada’s constantly evolving mortgage market can be challenging. Understanding the impacts of regulatory and policy changes, shifting economic fundamentals, rate fluctuations, and evolving market conditions is essential for delivering sound advice and developing personalized mortgage strategies for borrowers. This requires a comprehensive toolbox, offering the full spectrum of borrowing options from prime to private. For these reasons, particularly from a regulatory and business-building perspective, private lending education and expertise will remain a top priority.
Your trusted private mortgage partner: What to expect from CMI in 2025 and beyond
At CMI, we’re proud to support you in navigating this evolving market. Partnership remains the cornerstone of our approach. To better serve you, we continue to grow our award-winning team, including our dedicated Brokerage Relationship Managers (BRMs), to enhance our presence in strategic regions, maintain our competitive turn around times, and strengthen geographical distribution nationwide.
We are also actively exploring new opportunities to scale our funding sources and attract capital from a broader range of institutional investor partners as we strengthen our presence in Canada, pursue US expansion, and explore emerging global opportunities.
Keeping you informed is another priority. Through our Market Monitor and Housing Affordability Watch, you can continue to rely on our weekly economic, financial, and housing market insights to help you navigate an ever-changing landscape and support your borrower clients with confidence.
Education also remains central to our mission. From webinars and presentations to personalized one-on-one support, we are committed to equipping mortgage brokers with the knowledge and expertise required to deliver comprehensive advice and a complete spectrum of mortgage financing solutions.
Together, we look forward to another year of innovation, growth, and shared success. We remain committed to supporting you every step of the way.
As always, thank you for your trust and confidence. Here’s to a prosperous year ahead!
Bryan Jaskolka
CEO, CMI Financial Group
