Spring is a pivotal season in the Canadian real estate market, with a noticeable shift coming out of the winter months. While it tends to vary year to year, there’s often a surge in activity around May, characterized by increased listings, rising buyer demand, and faster turnover rates. This spring is shaping up to be particularly interesting, marked by shifting economic conditions and a historic mid-year forecast revision from CREA that’s added a new layer of uncertainty to the market.
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate at 2.75% in its latest meeting on April 16, choosing to pause after several recent cuts. That same sense of caution is being echoed by many prospective homebuyers, who are feeling unsure amid ongoing economic uncertainty. Still, with rates cooling, inventory rising and prices softening in some regions, a window of opportunity may be opening – particularly for millennial and Gen Z buyers looking to enter the market, as well as those looking to upgrade or downsize their homes.
Shifting trade relations between Canada, the United States and other nations, combined with the recent federal election, have been key drivers of recent uncertainty. While the full impact on the real estate and mortgage sectors is still unclear, many experts remain optimistic about this year’s spring market. Many buyers are eager to move off the sidelines, driven partly by a growing awareness of alternative financing options and an openness to working with different types of lenders, including private mortgage lenders.
Staying on top of Canadian real estate trends and market dynamics can help you maximize business opportunities and stay ahead of the competition. In this article, we break down what to expect this spring and share insights on the Canadian housing market forecast – so you can confidently guide clients and help them make the most of peak borrowing season.
What can we expect this year?
As spring activity ramps up, conditions remain challenged in some major housing markets. Despite initial optimism from both CMHC and the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA), with expectations for “housing sales and prices to rebound as lower mortgage rates and changes to mortgage rules unlock pent-up demand in the short term,” the outlook has shifted amid both tariff and economic uncertainty.
In a revised forecast on April 15, CREA downgraded its expectations for the 2025 housing market—marking its most substantial mid-quarter revision on record since the 2008–2009 financial crisis. The shift reflects rapidly changing conditions, especially as the impact of tariffs and broader economic instability weighs on buyer confidence.
CREA’s previous Canadian housing market forecast, released in January, anticipated an 8.6% increase in national home sales for 2025. But with more buyers remaining on the sidelines amid growing economic concerns, that figure has been slashed to a near-flat 0.02% decline. The national average home price is now projected to fall 0.3% to $687,898, nearly $30,000 less than CREA’s earlier estimate. British Columbia and Ontario are expected to see modest price declines, while price gains forecasted in other provinces have been scaled back to the 3% to 5% range.
CREA noted that the uncertainty introduced by ongoing trade tensions and the possibility of stagflation has made any market outlook unusually difficult. As a result, it cautions that all projections carry an unprecedented level of uncertainty.
Bright spots in a cautious market
Still, industry leaders urge Canadians not to lose sight of the market’s underlying strength.
“Canada’s housing market entered 2025 with mixed momentum,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO of Royal LePage. “In Ontario and British Columbia, softer sales reflect consumer caution in the face of economic headwinds. In contrast, markets in Quebec, the Prairies and Atlantic Canada are demonstrating surprising resilience, buoyed by pent-up demand, falling interest rates and chronically low inventory. This uneven performance is a hallmark of a market in transition.”
Soper pointed to additional signs of optimism. “Canada’s housing fundamentals remain strong, and real estate activity tends to rebound quickly when uncertainty lifts,” said Soper. “Beyond trade, getting the federal election behind us should help here. Regardless, across the country, we are seeing savvy buyers step off the sidelines, taking advantage of stable prices, growing inventory and falling rates.”
While the path ahead may be uneven, many economists and industry professionals – including CMI – continue to view Canadian real estate as a resilient long-term asset—offering a foundation of stability even amid short-term volatility.
Who’s driving demand?
This spring, expect to see a mix of buyer profiles entering – or reentering – the market and looking for guidance amid shifting conditions. According to CMHC, millennials are currently one of the biggest forces driving housing demand. Often first-time buyers, they’re motivated by long-term goals of homeownership and are increasingly focused on urban centres now that remote work options are becoming less common.
But it’s not just first-timers. Some existing homeowners who sat on the sidelines during the market peak could be ready to return to the market, whether it’s to upsize, invest in a second property, or relocate to more affordable regions with a more favourable mortgage landscape. Many of these homeowners purchased during the pandemic when rates were historically low and may now be eyeing a move as they approach their mortgage renewal date facing significantly higher rates.
These movements are playing out against an uneven national backdrop. While high-priced regions like Toronto and Vancouver are seeing softer sales and modest price declines, buyers are showing renewed interest in Canada’s more affordable areas – such as Quebec, the Prairies, and Atlantic Canada. As Royal LePage notes, “savvy buyers” are entering the market, capitalizing on growing inventory, stable prices, and lower borrowing costs. That includes younger buyers looking to enter the market and established homeowners responding to changing life circumstances and economic signals.
Whether motivated by necessity or opportunity, these buyers will be shaping the housing story this spring – each with different needs, expectations, and timelines
A window of opportunity
For many of your clients, this year’s spring market could be a valuable window of opportunity. By staying informed and proactive, you can help them navigate the shifting conditions and uncover effective strategies that align with their financial goals.
Now is a great time to check in with clients: Are they getting ready to renew their mortgage? Considering a move? Thinking about investing in another property? Even if they’re not ready to act right away, offering guidance and building a plan together can help ease their uncertainty and keep them on track.
And for those facing challenges – like not qualifying for traditional financing – it doesn’t have to be the end of the road. Exploring alternative options like private mortgages can provide a path forward.
At CMI, we specialize in flexible, customized mortgage solutions for a wide range of clients, from the self-employed to those looking to improve their credit, consolidate debt, or access equity. We’re here to support you with insights and solutions that help meet your clients where they are – and take them where they want to go.
Connect with us today to explore how we can support your business and your clients this spring.
